Long-term prediction of climate change impacts on indoor particle pollution – case study of a residential building in Germany

Extreme weather phenomena are increasing in nature, which affects indoor air quality and especially particle concentrations in several ways: (1) changes in ambient pollutant concentrations, (2) indoor particle formation from gas-phase reactions, (3) building characteristics, (4) particle dynamic processes, and (5) residential behavior. However, there are only a few studies that have examined future indoor particle concentrations in relation to climate change, even though indoor spaces are intended to protect people from local climate influences and health risks posed by pollutants. Consequently, this work focuses on the expected long- and short-term concentrations of airborne particles in residences. For this purpose, we applied the computer-based Indoor Air Quality Climate Change (IAQCC) model to a residential building as part of a case study. The selected building physics data represent a large part of the German building structure. The long-term prediction is based on the shared socio-economic pathway (SSP) scenarios published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). When assuming that the activities of residents remain unchanged, our long-term simulations (by 2100) show that the decreasing outdoor particle concentration will compensate for the indoor chemistry driven particle increase, leading to an overall decreasing trend in the indoor particle concentration. Nevertheless, outdoor air pollution events, such as dust storms and ozone episodes, can significantly affect indoor air quality in the short term. It becomes clear that measures are needed to prevent and minimize the effects of outdoor pollutants under extreme weather conditions. This also includes the equipment of buildings with regard to appropriate construction design and smart technologies in order to ensure the protection of human health.

Environmental significance

Today it must be assumed that the 1.5 °C global climate target by 2100 cannot be met. Society should therefore prepare for the consequences of more extreme weather phenomena. This particularly affects indoor spaces, where people seek protection from heat, cold, moisture and pollutants. It seems clear that, at least under certain weather conditions, uncontrolled heat and mass transfer between indoor and outdoor air no longer makes sense. The Indoor Air Quality Climate Change (IAQCC) model enables reasonable predictions for the thermal conditions and pollutants in indoor spaces based on the SSP scenarios of the IPCC. This is of fundamental importance for the future design of buildings, for developing efficient ventilation measures and avoidance and/or removal of gaseous and particulate pollutants.