State of the climate: 2026 likely to tie with 2024 as the warmest year on record
Published 3 November 2026
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With three-quarters of the year now past, it is virtually certain that 2026 will be the warmest or second-warmest year on record.
A rapidly strengthening El Niño, alongside human-caused global warming, made this year’s August the warmest on record and September the second-warmest.
El Niño is the warm phase of a recurring climate pattern in the tropical Pacific that releases heat from the ocean into the atmosphere and temporarily boosts global temperatures.
Carbon Brief’s analysis gives 2026 a 67% chance of surpassing 2024 as the warmest year on record across an average of six global temperature datasets.
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