Quantifying the ozone and ultraviolet benefits already achieved by the Montreal Protocol

This peer-reviewed study evaluates the environmental and human health benefits achieved through the Montreal Protocol, the international agreement introduced in 1987 to control ozone-depleting substances.

Using atmospheric modelling and satellite observations, the researchers compared observed ozone conditions with a hypothetical scenario in which ozone-depleting substances continued to increase without the agreement.

Their findings indicate that, by 2013, the Montreal Protocol had already prevented substantial additional ozone depletion. Without it, the Antarctic ozone hole could have been approximately 40% larger, while a severe Arctic ozone hole would have developed in 2011. Increased ultraviolet radiation would also have raised risks to human health, including skin cancer.

The study provides evidence that coordinated international environmental policy can deliver measurable benefits within decades, demonstrating the value of collective action informed by scientific evidence.

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Citation: Chipperfield MP, Dhomse SS, Feng W, McKenzie RL, Velders GJM, Pyle JA. Quantifying the ozone and ultraviolet benefits already achieved by the Montreal Protocol. Nature Communications. 2015;6:7233. https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms8233