Deforestation-induced emissions from mining energy transition minerals

The global transition to low-carbon energy depends on energy transition minerals (ETMs). Yet, the extraction of these minerals often occurs in biodiverse and carbon-rich forests, potentially undermining their climate benefits. Here we provide global, causally identified estimates of deforestation and related GHG emissions attributable to ETM mining, combining nearly 3,000 projects with satellite-based forest-change data. Using a staggered difference-in-differences design, we find that ETM mining causes sustained forest loss—averaging ~20% within 10-km buffers over 15 years—comparable in magnitude to traditional minerals such as coal and gold. These losses are disproportionately concentrated in tropical forests with high climate mitigation potential. Incorporating deforestation-related emissions increases the mining-stage carbon footprint of ETMs by 63% on average and up to 98% for certain minerals. Our findings reveal mining-induced land-use change as a major but overlooked source of emissions in global energy transition.