Assessing the climate mitigation potential of circular economy

This briefing provides information about the interlinkages between circular economy and climate change mitigation. It is based on a literature review of recent modelling results and supports the 2025 Clean Industrial Deal and 2020 Circular Economy Action Plan.

Key messages

Over the past five years more than 130 articles have been published documenting the significant climate mitigation potential of the circular economy.

However, methodological differences across studies make direct comparison of results challenging, yet some general highlights can be made.

Based on an average of the estimates for reductions across the studies, the circular economy could deliver a reduction in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of 33%, yet this ranges from 2% to 99%.

Results from individual sectors, indicate that emissions from waste management could be reduced by an average of 52% (range: 9-88%); from construction by 48% (range: 15-99%); and from industry by 26% (range: 5-61%).

Smaller living spaces, dietary shifts and shared mobility are commonly cited in modelling exercises as individual measures with high mitigation potential.

Further work is needed to integrate circular economy measures into climate change scenarios and to develop modelling tools that support policymakers in assessing their potential benefits.