Exceeding 1.5°C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points

This peer-reviewed scientific assessment examines the risk of crossing critical thresholds within Earth's climate system, beyond which environmental changes may become self-sustaining and potentially irreversible. Drawing on evidence from historical climate records, observations and climate modelling, the researchers reassess major global and regional tipping elements and the temperatures at which destabilisation could occur.

The study identifies risks associated with ice-sheet collapse, changes in ocean circulation and disruption of major ecosystems. It concludes that some tipping points may be triggered at global warming levels between 1.5°C and 2°C above pre-industrial temperatures, with additional risks emerging as temperatures rise further.

The findings highlight the importance of limiting global warming, strengthening climate risk assessment and developing early-warning systems. They demonstrate how relatively small increases in global temperature can substantially increase the likelihood of long-lasting changes to the Earth's climate and ecological systems.

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Citation: Armstrong McKay DI, Staal A, Abrams JF, Winkelmann R, Sakschewski B, Loriani S, et al. Exceeding 1.5°C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points. Science. 2022;377(6611). https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abn7950