Net release of CO2 from thawing permafrost soil carbon predicted to occur earlier in this century

Accelerating permafrost thaw may release vast deep (>3 meters) frozen soil carbon as carbon dioxide (CO2), but this magnitude remains uncertain because current Earth system models (ESMs) lack deep carbon processes. Using an updated ORCHIDEE-MICT model simulating Pleistocene Yedoma formation and Holocene peatland development, we project northern (>30°N) carbon responses under climate change. Compared to the original model, including these deep carbon pools improves agreement with observations and reduces net CO2 uptake by 47 to 74 petagrams of carbon from 1900 to 2100 across three future scenarios because of deep carbon decomposition with accelerated active-layer deepening. Under high-emission pathways, the northern soil carbon balance shifts from a sink to a source of 32 petagrams of carbon, advancing the reversal reported in earlier studies into the 21st century. Consistent with field data, our model shows that colder soils retain more labile carbon—contrary to assumptions in many Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) models—helping explain their persistent sink bias. Our results highlight the need to represent both the quantity and quality of permafrost carbon in ESMs.