What are climate tipping points and how might they affect the UK?

In 2025, Earth was around 1.44°C warmer than during the pre-industrial period. As global warming approaches 1.5°C, parts of the climate system are at increasing risk of undergoing potentially abrupt, long-lived and irreversible shifts. These shifts are known as ‘tipping points’ and have the potential to disrupt ecosystems, alter weather patterns, accelerate sea-level rise and increase global warming.

Several tipping point thresholds could be crossed if there is between 1.5°C and 2°C of sustained global warming, and the likelihood of additional tipping points being crossed would increase with further warming.

However, tipping points’ precise thresholds, likelihoods and timescales remain unclear. This briefing summarises the climate tipping points that would be most likely to affect the UK if their thresholds were crossed and assesses the scientific evidence for when this could happen.