Operational efficiencies reduce emission intensity of online shopping in China by one-third between 2000 and 2023

The rise of online shopping is reshaping how we buy goods, with profound environmental impacts. As online shopping grows globally, understanding its carbon footprint is essential for the low-carbon development of the retail sector. However, incomplete assessments—often ignoring air freight, packaging waste, and evolving supply chains—leave a critical knowledge gap. This gap risks locking in high-emission practices and undermining mitigation efforts in the retail sector. Our study of China’s retail data over three decades found that, while online shopping initially had a higher per-item carbon footprint, improvements in supply-chain efficiency have reduced its emissions. By 2060, online shopping could play a key role in cutting retail emissions—if supported by feasible policies and practices. These findings suggest that governments, industries, and consumers should shift their mitigation focuses from traditional shopping to online shopping to effectively decarbonize the retail sector.