A Well-Adapted UK

Climate change is undermining the UK’s security and prosperity. We are already experiencing serious impacts now, and further impacts are inevitable. By the middle of the century, the UK’s climate will be much more extreme than today. Hotter heatwaves could see 92% of existing homes overheat, creating dangerous conditions for vulnerable people. Peak river flows will be up to 45% higher, last longer, and be seen more frequently, driving increased flooding. Drier summers will mean shortfalls in water supply could reach over five billion litres per day, making drought more widespread. Without global emissions reductions, these risks may go past the point where the UK can protect itself with adaptation measures.

Under the UK’s Climate Change Act, the UK Government must assess climate risks every five years. The Climate Change Committee has a statutory responsibility to provide independent advice on these risks to inform the UK Government’s assessment and is tasked with compiling the evidence on climate risks. This report, and the accompanying CCRA4-IA Technical Report, do that. For the first time, the Committee is offering advice on potential solutions to address these risks. While this statutory responsibility is to the UK Government, the Committee hopes this report will provide evidence to support action by the governments of Northern Ireland, Scotland, and Wales, who helped to commission it. The report can also be useful to other organisations focused on action to adapt to climate change.

The UK was built for a climate that no longer exists today and will be increasingly distant in years to come. While efforts to keep global warming well below 2°C above preindustrial levels must remain a priority, the world is not yet on track for this. At a minimum, the UK should prepare for the weather extremes that will be experienced if global warming levels reach 2°C above preindustrial levels by 2050. At the high end of possibilities, reaching 4°C above preindustrial levels by the end of the century cannot yet be ruled out. This should be considered as part of effective adaptation planning.

We know what needs to be done to start preparing for a 2°C level of global warming by 2050. Cooling to protect from heat, increased flood preparedness, and improved water management are the highest priorities. Deploying these adaptations at scale will help avoid loss of life – particularly amongst those most vulnerable to climate impacts – and unnecessary damage and disruption to people and to the economy.

Hospitals and care homes must keep to safe temperatures for the sick and elderly during heatwaves. Land, crops, and habitats must be able to withstand the rising number of droughts. Supply chains, especially those for our food, must be resilient to climate shocks around the world. Adaptation actions need to ensure residual risks can still be insured, underpinning the property market and wider economy. Essential infrastructure must be resilient to rising heat and flood risks, with better coordination to avoid disruption, particularly in the energy and digital systems, cascading across sectors.

This report sets out climate risks, actions, and enablers across 14 key systems including health, land, and the economy. Breaking down our analysis in this way allows for clear recommendations and accountability. But climate risks do not simply sit in single systems. Many of the most dangerous risks will cascade across them. Further analysis could help understand the potential for avoiding these cascades, but the priority is action now to address known risks.

Adaptation can also operate across systems. The Committee has sought to take this into account in proposing objectives, targets, and actions – for example, minimising deaths due to extreme heat requires actions in health and social care, and in homes and communities.

The Committee estimates that investment of around £11 billion per year (range £7–£22 billion, 2025 prices) is needed from the public and private sectors. This will generate returns in the tens of billions. Whilst limits in data and methods mean both the investment and the returns are likely to be underestimated, investment of this order is manageable in an economy that currently invests around 50 times as much. Investment requirements are likely to be split in roughly equal proportions from the private and public sectors.

However, not every possible adaptation will be affordable. Government needs to lead a public dialogue about the level of resilience people expect and their willingness to pay for it. This can build on the results of our citizens’ panel, published alongside this report. The panel found that people want adaptation to limit harm and disruption to levels which are no greater than at present, recognising the costs of going further. People want to see adaptation happening now and for it to be done ‘properly’, with long-lasting preventative solutions.

The Committee agrees that adaptation cannot wait. Keeping people secure is a fundamental duty of the State. This is already being compromised by climate change. Adapting to climate change needs the same level of focus and commitment as geopolitical and other security threats. Damage is already happening which can be avoided. Taking action today is cheaper than taking action tomorrow. The main challenge is leadership, getting adaptation underway at sufficient scale and speed.

A well-adapted UK can only be created with action right across society. We need a new approach to adaptation in our governments to create national adaptation frameworks capable of driving the necessary action. This includes action from other public organisations, businesses, and households, across all four UK nations. We need increased ambition from government, captured in clear objectives. We need measurable targets to define what well-adapted means for the UK, in areas ranging from health to financial services. Targets, with clear ownership across government, need to be backed by delivery plans and sufficient resources.