Remaining Carbon Budget Allocation to Mediterranean Countries

The Mediterranean Basin is among the regions that are most severely impacted by climate change, both currently and in future projections, as highlighted by multiple reports by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. According to the Mediterranean Centre for Environmental Studies (CEAM, 2024), the surface temperature of the Mediterranean Sea has risen by 1.5 ºC over the past 40 years, with an accelerated warming trend over the last decade. Consequently, reducing global emissions and preserving the coastal and marine ecosystems of the Mediterranean Basin are critical priorities and remain central to the objectives of the Barcelona Convention.

This study shows the implications of alternative allocation criteria for sharing the remaining carbon emissions budget (RCB) available to meet the Paris Agreement (limiting global warming well below 2ºC by 2100) among the signatory countries of the Barcelona Convention. The study evaluates the resulting emission pathways until 2100 based on these allocation criteria, starting from the most recent objectives reflected in the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) for 2030.The methodology section explains the technical details behind selecting the remaining carbon budget figure and implementing different allocation criteria from 2030 to 2100. This includes using a specific mitigation pathway derived from the Integrated Assessment Model Global Change Analysis Model (G