Typhoon Ragasa

The IRIS model estimates that climate change uplifted the intensity of a typhoon of the type like “Ragasa” from a weak Category 3 to a strong Category 3 at landfall. A “Ragasa” type typhoon at landfall is about +49% more likely in the 2025 climate compared to a pre-industrial baseline. The eyewall maximum precipitation has increased by 13%. We also estimate that about a third (36%) of the damage in South China of a “Ragasa” type typhoon can be attributed to climate change compared to the pre-industrial baseline. In a future +2°C warmer world we estimate an additional +27% to the current damages.