Evaluating IPCC Projections of Global Sea-Level Change From the Pre-Satellite Era

The ultimate test of climate projections occurs by means of subsequent observations. Three decades of satellite-based measurements of global sea-level change now enable such a comparison and show that early IPCC climate projections were remarkably accurate. Predictions of glacier mass loss and thermal expansion of seawater were comparatively successful, but the ice-sheet contributions were underestimated. Nevertheless, these findings provide confidence in model-based climate projections.