Analysis and forecast of emissions associated with electricity consumption in hospitals: Encouraging a net zero healthcare roadmap in Brazil

In several countries, the concept of Net Zero Healthcare (NZH) has gained prominence within the healthcare domain as a response to national commitments on climate change. NZH plays a crucial role in advocating for customized commitments and objectives to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions across diverse healthcare units, serving as a catalyst for decarbonization strategies in both the public and private sectors. This paper addresses the absence of primary research on NZH in Brazil while asserting its substantial potential to support GHG-curbing initiatives. This is the first study to establish a foundational knowledge base for decarbonization initiatives in Brazilian healthcare sector, focused on assisting in the sustainability roadmap of a University Hospital situated in Northeast Brazil. The major contribution of this study is the quantification of the GHG emissions associated with the electricity consumption at the hospital, which serves as a gateway to a comprehensive GHG inventory of the entire unit. The hospital's GHG emissions are then registered for 2017-2023. Methodologically, this study employs a comprehensive framework encompassing data processing of the electric mix, calculation of emission factors via life cycle assessment, forecasting algorithms, and data visualization. GHG emissions from electricity consumption at the hospital amounted to approximately 230 t CO2e annually (2017-2023 average value). Short-term forecasts supported by SARIMA models projected emissions of 271.9 t CO2e in 2024, with 92% originating from off-peak consumption. The significance of this research is the potential to provide new insights into shaping strategies for a viable NZH roadmap in Brazil.