Modelling the long-term financial benefits of UK investment in wind energy generation

This study presents new evidence of the financial impact of wind generation on the UK energy market, challenging the idea that sustainability, security, and affordability, are always in conflict. From 2010 to 2023, wind power delivered a net benefit of £104.3 billion to UK consumers—£14.2 billion from lower electricity prices and £133.3 billion from reduced natural gas prices, partially offset by £43.2 billion in wind energy subsidies. Our study takes a long-term modelling approach and considers the broader counterfactual of what would happen if the UK had continued to invest in gas instead of wind generation. In this scenario, the result is a significantly increased demand for gas in the regional European market, and therefore higher prices. Unlike previous short-term modelling studies, this approach highlights the longer-term financial benefit that wind has delivered to the UK consumer.

It is clear that wind generators reduce market prices, cannibalising their own revenues, creating value for others while limiting their own profitability. Wind power should be viewed as a public good—like roads or schools—where government support leads to national gains.

The current funding model, where electricity users bear the cost while gas users benefit, raises fairness concerns. Ultimately, wind investment has significantly lowered fossil fuel prices, underscoring the need for strategic, equitable energy policy that aligns with long-term national interests. Our study demonstrates that the energy transition is not a costly environmental subsidy, it is a compelling financial investment.