Tripling the Adaptation Finance Goal Is Possible — Here’s What It Takes

Accelerating adaptation finance is an increasingly urgent priority for global climate action, particularly for developing countries and communities facing the brunt of climate impacts. At this year’s UN Climate Change Conference (COP30) in Belém, Brazil, there’s an opportunity for negotiators to adopt a new adaptation finance goal.

There are different views of what such a goal could look like. Some developing nations have emphasized that any goal would likely not meet adaptation needs. Meanwhile, many developed nations have resisted a new goal, pointing to last year’s agreement on a new goal of at least $300 billion for all climate finance (known as the new collective quantified goal or NCQG) as a final agreement that shouldn’t be reopened.

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But at COP30, tripling the $40 billion adaptation goal agreed to four years ago at COP26 to create a new $120 billion goal is gaining traction. For example, during negotiations this week, groups like the Independent Alliance of Latin America and the Caribbean and the Least Development Countries have advocated for such a target.

We explore here whether a tripling of the adaptation finance goal would be possible — and find that it could be by 2035, the target year for the $300 billion NCQG.