Forecasting medical waste generation and estimating waste to energy potentials with associated greenhouse gas emissions: A holistic analysis

Three novel semi-empirical models are generated in this study to forecast Türkiye’s medical waste (MW) generation till 2040 based on different scenarios. Scenarios for models 1 to 3 provides a spectrum of data that covers potential stagnancy, exponential and linear rise scenarios for MW generation till 2040. All models alluded high goodness of fit and accuracy based on RMSE, MAPE (%), R2 and residual analysis values. Model 3 is deemed as the best fit among them. Türkiye’s average MW generation in 2040 is forecasted to be 380 thousand tons and energy worth equal to the consumption of 206.5 million m3 of natural gas (NG) could be produced if all the combustible portion of MW, which is 92 % of the total, is collected and incinerated. It is also estimated that from incineration of MW energy worth equal to 0.13–0.21 % of Türkiye’s annual NG consumption valued at 26.2–77.4 million US$ could be generated between 2022 and 2040. In 2040, if all the MW generated is collected and further processed for energy generation theoretical NOx, CO, and SO2 emissions from Tier 2 uncontrolled air and Tier 1 rotary kiln incineration are estimated as nearly 680, 570, 420 and 980, 8, 120 tons, respectively. Lastly, this study could be used as a basis for estimating MW generation in different countries with associated energy equivalence analysis and GHG emission calculations.