Black Carbon and CO2 Emissions from EU-Regulated Shipping in the Arctic

The Arctic region is experiencing significant environmental stress due to rapid warming, with temperatures rising 3–4 times faster than the global average. As Arctic shipping activity increases, so do the associated black carbon (BC) emissions. Black carbon has a 100-year global warming potential 900 times greater than that of CO2, and its effects are amplified in the Arctic region due to the albedo effect. These emissions contribute to further warming and environmental degradation, compounding the challenges faced by this already vulnerable region.

The European Union (EU) has committed to addressing shipping emissions as part of its broader Arctic climate strategy. To date, the contribution of EU shipping to emissions in the Arctic has been primarily assessed based on data from EU-flagged ships. However, the number of ships navigating the Arctic to and from EU ports may be substantially higher, suggesting that previous assessments may underestimate the total impact.

This study compares the composition, fuel use, and BC and CO2 emissions of the EU-flagged fleet in the Arctic, defined as ships flying EU flags, and the EU-regulated fleet in the Arctic, defined as ships reporting to the EU Monitoring, Reporting, and Verification (MRV) system, meaning they are voyaging to or from EU ports. To capture the full scope of emissions, we assess impacts across both a broadly defined Geographic Arctic region (north of 59°N) and the more limited Arctic as defined by the International Maritime Organization (IMO)’s Polar Code.