Five years of Black Carbon Emissions from Ships in the Arctic 2019 – 2024

Report By EERA (Energy and Environmental Research Associates for the Clean Arctic Alliance

“Black Carbon Emissions from Ships in the Arctic 2019 – 2024”, provides a comprehensive analysis of tank-to-wake black carbon emissions from Arctic shipping using three geographic definitions: a latitudinal band north of 60oN (excluding the Baltic Sea and Gulf of Alaska), the Polar Code Arctic waters, as well as a broader ecological boundary defined by the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP). It estimates black carbon emissions for the years 2019, 2022 and 2024. The report examines the seasonal patterns of Arctic shipping routes, profiling vessel characteristics, fuel consumption by EEZ and vessel type as well as energy use. Historical estimates show how Arctic shipping activity and associated emissions have changed over time, while forecasts reveal how growth in emissions could affect the Arctic, and inform decisions on fuel choices, such as that proposed by PPR 13/6, operational practices and regulatory strategies.

Key findings include:

• Distillate fuels are the dominant fuel in the Arctic, primarily with smaller regional vessels.
• Fishing vessels contribute the largest share of BC, reflecting their high numbers in the fleet, even as most operate on distillate fuels.
• Significant Arctic activity occurs outside the Polar Code region, meaning much of the fuel consumption and resulting BC emissions will not be regulated under the Arctic HFO ban.
• BC emissions in the Arctic increased across all geographical scopes from 2019 to 2024, rising from 259 to 759 metric tonnes (MT) in the Polar Code area, from 2,696 to 3,310 MT in the 60oN latitudinal band, and from 1,704 to 2,487 MT in AMAP.
• Norway has the highest concentration of vessel activity, reflecting dense shipping activity along its coastline. 60°N captures a larger portion of Norway’s EEZ, resulting in higher annual BC emissions compared with the broader AMAP boundary.
• Trans-Arctic routes show strong growth in commercial activity, particularly along the NSR, with the NWP more recently opening to vessel use, as sea ice recedes.
• Residual fuel use is rising along these routes, resulting in significant increases in BC in the Canadian and Russian EEZs.
• BC reductions from upcoming measures are limited, with only a 2.0-5.0% decrease under full HFO ban enforcement and 2.6-2.9% under Arctic ECA scenarios, even assuming a complete switch to distillates.
• AMAP region BC emissions are projected to rise, reaching 2,760 MT by 2030, 3,690 MT by 2040, and 4,610 MT by 2050.
• Model estimates show switching from residual to distillate fuels in the whole AMAP, Polar Code, and waters north of 60°N can reduce BC emissions by more than new ECAs alone.

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