No net carbon recovery in logged tropical forests in central Vietnam

Tropical forests recovering from logging are widely assumed to rapidly accumulate carbon. However, in Southeast Asia, where a legacy of high-intensity logging and climate change may modulate recovery trajectories, uncertainties remain about the rate and spatial heterogeneity of aboveground biomass recovery and the long-term stability of the forest carbon sink. Here we show no evidence of net aboveground carbon accumulation in naturally regenerating, selectively logged forests in central Vietnam. Based on the repeated inventories of 24 permanent plots (2016–2024) nearly two decades after 25 years of logging ceased, net carbon uptake was indistinguishable from zero (0.004 Mg C ha−1 yr−1, 95% CI: −0.38, 0.38). Higher maximum temperatures were strongly associated with reduced carbon gains, suggesting that warming may already be constraining forest productivity. Observed recovery rates are significantly lower than the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change benchmarks and previously reported rates for Southeast Asian forests. Our results challenge the assumption of rapid and predictable carbon recovery in degraded tropical forests. Nevertheless, these forests maintained existing carbon stocks throughout monitoring, with no detectable net carbon loss. Carbon assessment frameworks that do not incorporate local data risk overestimating sequestration potential. Consequently, site-specific, long-term data are essential for calibrating restoration strategies, improving carbon estimates and informing climate mitigation policies in a warming world.