Environmental impact and net-zero pathways for sustainable artificial intelligence servers in the USA

The rapidly increasing demand for generative artificial intelligence (AI) models requires extensive server installation with sustainability implications in terms of the compound energy–water–climate impacts. Here we show that the deployment of AI servers across the United States could generate an annual water footprint ranging from 731 to 1,125 million m3 and additional annual carbon emissions from 24 to 44 Mt CO2-equivalent between 2024 and 2030, depending on the scale of expansion. Other factors, such as industry efficiency initiatives, grid decarbonization rates and the spatial distribution of server locations within the United States, drive deep uncertainties in the estimated water and carbon footprints. We show that the AI server industry is unlikely to meet its net-zero aspirations by 2030 without substantial reliance on highly uncertain carbon offset and water restoration mechanisms. Although best practices may reduce emissions and water footprints by up to 73% and 86%, respectively, their effectiveness is constrained by current energy infrastructure limitations. These findings underscore the urgency of accelerating the energy transition and point to the need for AI companies to harness the clean energy potential of Midwestern states. Coordinating efforts of private actors and regulatory interventions would ensure the competitive and sustainable development of the AI sector.