State of Climate Attribution Science in East Africa: A Systematic Review

Climate attribution studies quantify how human activities have altered the likelihood and magnitude of weather and climate events, clarifying how hazards are shifting under anthropogenic climate change and what this means for affected communities and systems. The field therefore links climate science with decision making and can provide evidence for future planning. Yet most attribution evidence remains concentrated in data and resource rich regions in the Global North, leaving data scarce areas and under-resourced regions such as East Africa underrepresented. We assess the current state of evidence of climate attribution in East Africa. Following a systematic screening process resulted in the synthesis of 27 attribution studies in the region between 2013 and 2024. Findings highlight that more than half of the studies detect a clear anthropogenic influence, although results remain sensitive to methodological choices, event framing, and substantial model spread. Persistent limitations arise from observational data gaps, model biases, sparse station networks, and weak documentation of heat events and their impacts. Evidence is concentrated in the Horn of Africa, with no studies for Small Island Developing States. Moreover, extreme heat events and tropical cyclones are often overlooked in analyses. Institutional imbalances further constrain the evidence base, as most studies are led by institutions outside East Africa, limiting locally grounded interpretation and relevance for adaptation planning. Strengthening observational networks, expanding regional models, and local capacities is crucial for advancing attribution science and developing adaptation metrics that reflect evolving hazards.