How might a ‘super El niño’ affect food, forests and water

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), or El Niño, weather pattern occurs naturally every two to seven years, making some parts of the world drier and others wetter. But this year’s El Niño is shaping up to be a different beast.

Scientists predict an increasingly likely “Super El Niño,” where ocean temperatures in the Pacific rise higher than 2 degrees C (3.6 degrees F) above average and alter atmospheric conditions more than usual. The result could be stronger, more persistent impacts around the world that go beyond upending some of the world’s most productive sources of seafood and impacting the livelihoods of coastal communities, extending to droughts, floods, cyclones, extreme heat and more.

While Super El Niños occur roughly every 10-15 years, the effects of this year’s event could be amplified by current conditions. For one, warmer, drier and more erratic conditions fueled by ongoing climate change could exacerbate El Niño’s impacts. The last 11 years have been the warmest on record. And two, food systems around the world already face strains from the U.S.-Iran war and its resulting fuel and fertilizer shortages.

Here, WRI experts answer questions on what a Super El Niño could mean for water, food and forests — as well as how communities can prepare for the impacts.