Renewable electricity: best buffer against gas price volatility

Drawing on energy market data for the first 16 weeks of 2026 and further quantitative analysis, this briefing quantifies how gas price volatility impacts EU electricity prices and estimates the compound benefits of renewable electricity sources in 2026 and to 2030.

Key messages

Despite progress, the European Union (EU) remains vulnerable to external fossil fuel supply shocks, as gas prices still drive EU wholesale electricity prices.

Gas price volatility in early 2026 cost the EU EUR 13 billion by mid-April. Renewables saved users EUR 29 billion, confirming renewables’ role as the system’s most effective shock absorber.

By 2030, the deployment of renewables could significantly reduce average EU wholesale electricity prices. Delays would do the opposite – locking in gas dependence and exposing EU countries to gas price volatility.

Unlocking the price benefits of renewables requires further enabling policies that help the system keep pace with changes in the electricity mix.