Tropical forests in the Americas are changing too slowly to track climate change

Tropical land regions are experiencing rapid climate change, with some scenarios for the tropical Americas projecting temperature increases of up to ~4°C and precipitation reductions of close to 20% by 2100. This would expose current species assemblages to climates that they have never experienced before, potentially selecting for future plant communities adapted to such climates but unlike those currently observed. Community responses to climate change will thus likely depend on underlying mechanisms and geographical context. In the face of threats from climate change, it is both critical and urgent to understand the ability of these complex systems to adapt to change and survive. The relationships among environmental conditions, plant performance, and distribution are mediated by species’ functional traits. Therefore, a trait-based approach provides a promising framework for predicting the impacts of climate change and resilience across forest ecosystems.