Strategic planning of prevention and surveillance for emerging diseases and invasive species

As the global burden of emerging diseases and invasive species grows, efficient use of limited resources becomes increasingly critical. By the time the first case is detected, the disease or species may have been spreading unnoticed for an extended period. We developed a resource allocation model to minimize this unnoticed spread. The model allocates a given budget between prevention and surveillance across many geographical sites. It applies to areas where disease or species are likely to emerge but have not yet been found. We show that a stable allocation strategy is optimal in the long run. A case study on wildlife disease shows that the optimal strategy can achieve significantly earlier detection and cost savings.