Climate Action Tracker: 2025 warming projection update

Ten years after the Paris Agreement, the world stands at a critical juncture in the fight against climate change, with little to no measurable progress in warming projections - for the fourth consecutive year, as Climate Action Tracker’s latest global update, released at the COP30.

Almost none of the 40 governments the CAT analyses have updated their 2030 target, which is critical to keep warming levels below 1.5°C, nor have they set out the kind of action in new 2035 targets needed to change course.

Our global temperature projections based on this year’s policy developments and 2035 targets have almost come to a standstill: it has barely moved over the past four years. The warning signs are clear: we are heading in the wrong direction.