Macroecological approaches for the prediction of zoonotic disease risk

Outbreaks of zoonotic pathogens have become more frequent as human modification of the natural environment accelerates pathogen spillover from wildlife to humans, yet much remains to be investigated around the mechanisms that regulate pathogen outbreaks. This Review explores the current use of macroecological variables (that is, emergent ecosystem properties) for modelling zoonotic disease risk. We identify important research gaps and discuss untapped opportunities for using a wider spectrum of variables to achieve improved modelling of zoonotic disease risk and, consequently, surveillance. We present a set of operational recommendations and guidelines for potential integration of macroecological approaches within a broader One Health framework.