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Strategy for coordinating near-term PM2.5, ozone, and CO2 mitigation in China

Climate change | Pollution, environmental and human health

November 10, 2025

  • Date (DD-MM-YYYY)

    20-11-2025 to 20-11-2026

    Available on-demand until 20th November 2026

  • Cost

    Free

  • Education type

    Publication

  • CPD subtype

    On-demand

Description

China faces the challenge of simultaneously improving fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and ozone (O3) air quality while tackling climate change. However, most studies have focused on either the cocontrol of PM2.5 and O3 or the synergy between CO2 reduction and PM2.5 improvement, leaving comprehensive strategies for tackling all three underexplored. Here, we evaluate various combinations of clean-air and climate policies in China using an integrated framework that consists of a technology-based emission projection model, a goal-oriented measure selection and optimization method, a chemical transport model, and a detailed cost–benefit assessment approach. Our results show that while maintaining current clean-air policies is effective in controlling PM2.5, their impact on O3 remains limited. Maximizing cost-effective end-of-pipe measures targeting NOx and volatile organic compounds can achieve cocontrol of PM2.5 and O3, but remain vulnerable to unfavorable meteorological conditions. Near-term climate policies alone contribute limited improvements in air quality, particularly for O3, due to the lower synergy between CO2 and O3 precursor emission sources. Only a combined strategy, integrating stringent clean-air actions and ambitious climate mitigation, can achieve the “triple control” of PM2.5, O3, and CO2. Under this strategy, national annual mean PM2.5 and national O3-8 h 90th percentile concentrations are reduced to 19.1 μg m−3 and 126.9 μg m−3 by 2030, respectively, yielding net benefits of over 3,000 billion RMB. Our findings can inform China’s next phase of environmental policies and emission control strategies in developing regions.

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