Humid-heat shifts conceptions and increases pregnancy termination risks in Nigeria

Climate change is increasing dangerous heat events globally. We examine the relationship between humid-heat and women’s reproductive health in Nigeria, a rapidly growing and climate-vulnerable country. By spatially integrating demographic data with fine-grained humid-heat data, we find that hotter humid conditions decrease conception probability, but later rebound, and increase pregnancy terminations, resulting in more births overall. We observe greater effects of humid-heat on conception among more disadvantaged or vulnerable women, such as those who live in rural areas or have lower educational attainment, while humid-heat affects pregnancy termination along different dimensions, such as women in southern areas, older women, and Christian women. Our findings shed light on the complex relationship between temperature-humidity extremes and maternal and reproductive health.