Amplified warming in tropical and subtropical cities under 2 °C climate change

Urban heat stress under climate change is an increasing concern, as most cities are already warmer than their rural surroundings, heightening their vulnerability to rising temperatures and exposing a large share of the global population. While Global Climate Models are essential for projecting future temperature changes, their relatively coarse scale limits their ability to capture the trends of smaller cities. To bridge this gap, projected changes in land surface temperature in medium-sized cities are created and compared to surrounding regions, identifying areas where the urban warming rate is faster than rural surroundings. Our analysis shows low-resolution projections likely underestimate future urban warming in most cities, highlighting the need for deeper study.