When crops fail, forests follow: Agricultural shocks and deforestation in Zambia

This article estimates how farmers respond to a negative agricultural production shock from an invasive pest. While one might think that decreasing the productivity of agricultural land would lead to lower demand for agricultural land and thus lower rates of land conversion, we find that those farmers facing the largest pest outbreak deforest more through expanding agricultural land and increasing charcoal production. This effect was particularly pronounced for farmers who have greater access to markets, but lower for wealthier households. Along with related work, our results suggest that households with more available mitigation options are less likely to turn to charcoal as a coping strategy.